Floatout operator guides
How to create your own prediction market
Four routes: a play-money site, your own exchange, a HIP-4 outcome market on Hyperliquid, or a branded platform over existing markets. Pick by what you need to control.
Compare the four routes
| Route | You control | You build or run | Real money | Who settles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-money site (e.g. Manifold) | The question, wording, and resolution criteria | Nothing to build, just the market listing | No, points only | You, as the creator |
| Build your own exchange | Everything: questions, matching, custody, compliance | Market contracts, an oracle or resolution source, a matching engine or AMM, custody | Yes, if you choose | Whatever resolution source you build |
| Deploy a HIP-4 outcome market | Which validator-approved template you deploy, within per-deployer limits | A deployer integration against Hyperliquid's outcome API | Yes | You as deployer, under the template's published rules. Recurring outcomes are settled by the protocol |
| Branded platform over existing markets | Branding, distribution, and which listed events you feature | Nothing, the frontend and builder-fee setup are provided | Yes | The market's deployer or the protocol, never you |
Play money: anyone can create a question
Sites like Manifold let anyone open a market on anything, for free, and creation seeds the market's own liquidity. New users start with a balance of points (Manifold gives M1000). Trades use that play currency and, per Manifold's own FAQ, cannot be converted to cash. This route fits testing a question or running an internal forecasting game. It does not fit a business that needs real trading volume or real payouts.
Build your own exchange
A real-money exchange from scratch needs market contracts that define the payout, a resolution source or oracle you trust to report the outcome, a matching mechanism (an order book or an AMM), and custody for user funds. Past the code, you take on compliance, liquidity, and the operational load of running a matching engine and a resolution process that people will contest when money is on the line. This is the highest-control, highest-cost route, and the only one with no external platform to lean on.
Deploy a HIP-4 outcome market on Hyperliquid
HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's outcome-market primitive: fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. Its first live market is a recurring binary outcome settling daily at 06:00 UTC to the BTC mark price. You do not write an arbitrary question and deploy it yourself. Validators vote on outcome templates, and HIP-4 deployers build permissionless deployments on top of those templates, bounded by per-deployer capacity limits rather than gas cost. See how Hyperliquid prediction markets work for the current catalog.
Launch a branded platform over existing markets
If your community just needs somewhere to trade, and the question you care about is already listed, skip building anything. Floatout gives you a branded site over Hyperliquid's existing HIP-4 catalog, free to create. Builder fees on eligible sells are charged from day one and go to Floatout until you activate earnings with a one-time payment. After that you keep them, minus an ongoing platform share. See pricing for current numbers, and how prediction-market fees actually work for the math. Traders fund their own Hyperliquid accounts, so the platform never holds trader funds. Floatout does not let you author a question or settle a market. Builder fees follow the same mechanics as Hyperliquid builder codes generally. Browse the prediction markets currently available before you decide.
Settlement follows published rules
On every real-money route above, settlement runs on rules published with the market: a validator-approved HIP-4 template and its deployer, the protocol's own schedule for recurring outcomes, or a resolution source you built yourself if you went the from-scratch route. Branding, community size, and trading activity never grant settlement authority. If your business depends on a question or a payout condition that no listed template covers, that is a build-your-own-exchange requirement, not something activation or branding will create.
Regulation, stated neutrally
The CFTC treats event contracts as derivatives, typically structured as yes/no contracts with a fixed payout, and regulates them through designated contract markets. It has warned about unregistered platforms. This is not legal advice: check current guidance for your jurisdiction and user base before offering a real-money market, whichever route you pick.
Frequently asked questions
Can I create my own questions on Floatout?
No. Floatout is a branded interface over Hyperliquid's existing HIP-4 outcome catalog. It does not let you author a question or settle a market.
What is the fastest way to give my community a prediction market?
Launch a branded platform over an existing catalog. You skip building a matching engine, sourcing an oracle, and writing settlement rules, and focus on distribution.
Can anyone create a market for free?
On a play-money site like Manifold, yes: creation is open and trades use points with no cash value. Deploying a real-money market is not open the same way. It runs through a platform's approval, template, or licensing process.
Who settles a Hyperliquid outcome market?
Recurring outcomes are deployed and settled by the protocol on a fixed schedule. Other markets are settled by their deployer under the rules published with the market. Branding or community activity never grants settlement authority.
Do I need a license to run a real-money prediction market?
The CFTC treats event contracts as derivatives and warns against unregistered trading platforms. This is not legal advice, so check current guidance before offering real-money markets to US users.
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