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How to create your own prediction market

Four routes: a play-money site, your own exchange, a HIP-4 outcome market on Hyperliquid, or a branded platform over existing markets. Pick by what you need to control.

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Compare the four routes

Four routes to create your own prediction market
RouteYou controlYou build or runReal moneyWho settles
Play-money site (e.g. Manifold)The question, wording, and resolution criteriaNothing to build, just the market listingNo, points onlyYou, as the creator
Build your own exchangeEverything: questions, matching, custody, complianceMarket contracts, an oracle or resolution source, a matching engine or AMM, custodyYes, if you chooseWhatever resolution source you build
Deploy a HIP-4 outcome marketWhich validator-approved template you deploy, within per-deployer limitsA deployer integration against Hyperliquid's outcome APIYesYou as deployer, under the template's published rules. Recurring outcomes are settled by the protocol
Branded platform over existing marketsBranding, distribution, and which listed events you featureNothing, the frontend and builder-fee setup are providedYesThe market's deployer or the protocol, never you

Play money: anyone can create a question

Sites like Manifold let anyone open a market on anything, for free, and creation seeds the market's own liquidity. New users start with a balance of points (Manifold gives M1000). Trades use that play currency and, per Manifold's own FAQ, cannot be converted to cash. This route fits testing a question or running an internal forecasting game. It does not fit a business that needs real trading volume or real payouts.

Build your own exchange

A real-money exchange from scratch needs market contracts that define the payout, a resolution source or oracle you trust to report the outcome, a matching mechanism (an order book or an AMM), and custody for user funds. Past the code, you take on compliance, liquidity, and the operational load of running a matching engine and a resolution process that people will contest when money is on the line. This is the highest-control, highest-cost route, and the only one with no external platform to lean on.

Deploy a HIP-4 outcome market on Hyperliquid

HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's outcome-market primitive: fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. Its first live market is a recurring binary outcome settling daily at 06:00 UTC to the BTC mark price. You do not write an arbitrary question and deploy it yourself. Validators vote on outcome templates, and HIP-4 deployers build permissionless deployments on top of those templates, bounded by per-deployer capacity limits rather than gas cost. See how Hyperliquid prediction markets work for the current catalog.

Launch a branded platform over existing markets

If your community just needs somewhere to trade, and the question you care about is already listed, skip building anything. Floatout gives you a branded site over Hyperliquid's existing HIP-4 catalog, free to create. Builder fees on eligible sells are charged from day one and go to Floatout until you activate earnings with a one-time payment. After that you keep them, minus an ongoing platform share. See pricing for current numbers, and how prediction-market fees actually work for the math. Traders fund their own Hyperliquid accounts, so the platform never holds trader funds. Floatout does not let you author a question or settle a market. Builder fees follow the same mechanics as Hyperliquid builder codes generally. Browse the prediction markets currently available before you decide.

Settlement follows published rules

On every real-money route above, settlement runs on rules published with the market: a validator-approved HIP-4 template and its deployer, the protocol's own schedule for recurring outcomes, or a resolution source you built yourself if you went the from-scratch route. Branding, community size, and trading activity never grant settlement authority. If your business depends on a question or a payout condition that no listed template covers, that is a build-your-own-exchange requirement, not something activation or branding will create.

Regulation, stated neutrally

The CFTC treats event contracts as derivatives, typically structured as yes/no contracts with a fixed payout, and regulates them through designated contract markets. It has warned about unregistered platforms. This is not legal advice: check current guidance for your jurisdiction and user base before offering a real-money market, whichever route you pick.

Frequently asked questions

Can I create my own questions on Floatout?

No. Floatout is a branded interface over Hyperliquid's existing HIP-4 outcome catalog. It does not let you author a question or settle a market.

What is the fastest way to give my community a prediction market?

Launch a branded platform over an existing catalog. You skip building a matching engine, sourcing an oracle, and writing settlement rules, and focus on distribution.

Can anyone create a market for free?

On a play-money site like Manifold, yes: creation is open and trades use points with no cash value. Deploying a real-money market is not open the same way. It runs through a platform's approval, template, or licensing process.

Who settles a Hyperliquid outcome market?

Recurring outcomes are deployed and settled by the protocol on a fixed schedule. Other markets are settled by their deployer under the rules published with the market. Branding or community activity never grants settlement authority.

Do I need a license to run a real-money prediction market?

The CFTC treats event contracts as derivatives and warns against unregistered trading platforms. This is not legal advice, so check current guidance before offering real-money markets to US users.

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